New data from HR insights provider Brightmine, shows that the UK’s median basic pay award has returned to 3%, with most deals falling between 2% and 4.2%, confirming 2025 as a year defined by subdued and tightly controlled pay growth. After a brief lift last month driven by high-value public-sector settlements, the latest quarter’s figures reveal a reversion to the flat trend that has dominated this year.
Despite isolated areas of stronger public-sector activity, pay restraint continues to shape the wider picture. The Brightmine matched sample analysis shows that more than seven in 10 deals in 2025 were lower than those awarded to the same employees in 2024.
Sheila Attwood, Senior Content Manager, Data and HR Insights at Brightmine, comments: “2025 has been a year of limited movement. While public-sector deals delivered a temporary lift to our headline figure earlier in the autumn, the underlying pattern remains one of cautious, contained pay growth. Most organisations are continuing to operate within tight affordability boundaries, which is reflected in the consistent clustering of deals around the 3% mark.”
Outlook for 2026
Looking into 2026, pay expectations remain centred around a 3% increase, with employers signalling another year of controlled and moderate awards. The April 2025 rise in national insurance contributions is continuing to influence planning, with many employers anticipating a negative impact on next year’s pay decisions.
Attwood adds: “Unless economic conditions improve meaningfully, most organisations are preparing for another year of tight pay budgets. Early indications suggest that 2026 pay awards could potentially edge lower than 2025’s 3% threshold as cost pressures continue to weigh on employers.”
Brightmine December Pay Trends 2025 Highlights
Brightmine November analysis draws on 18 pay awards implemented between 1 September and 31 November 2025, together affecting almost 118,000 UK employees. Headline findings are as follows:
- Deals cluster between 2% and 4.2%. Aside from a single pay freeze, all basic deals in the current period sit between 2% and 4.2%.
- Majority of settlements below 2024 levels. Within our matched sample, almost two-thirds (64.7%) of pay awards were lower than those agreed for the same employees in 2024.
Brightmine YTD 2025 Highlights
Across the full year so far, Brightmine has collected 585 pay awards, covering 5.8 million employees. Key trends include:
- Median basic award drops to 3%. The median basic pay awards for 2025 stands at 3%; this is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 2024 median of 4.5%.
- Narrow range of basic awards in 2025. The middle 50% of basic pay awards in 2025 fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, showing a compressed range of outcomes around the 3% mark.
- Pay freezes more common in 2025. Across all deals, pay freezes account for 4.1% of all recorded awards, compared with 2.8% in 2024, highlighting a noticeable rise in organisations opting not to increase basic pay.
- Most settlements fall below 2024 awards. In our matched sample analysis, around three-quarters (75.4%) of 2025 pay awards are lower than the deals given to the same group of employees in 2024.
Pay review pattern – whole economy, November 2024 to November 2025
