“Today’s data marks the end of a long spike in vacancies driven by the pandemic, with a 33rd straight month of decline bringing the number of open jobs below the February 2020 level for the first time. The real question now is whether this slowdown will now abate. There are some cautious reasons for optimism in employers’ reported views of their own business prospects, and in the relatively stable levels of unemployment and employment, and economic inactivity that is finally starting to drop. But there are also huge headwinds related to the sheer cost of employment, that the government would do well to take seriously as a threat to recovery. The recent rises in National Insurance, especially for low earners, and concern about the path of both the Employment Rights Bill and the path of the National Minimum Wage have taken some of the shine off the spring mood, and government needs to offer business more than warm words.
“A stabilising jobs market and February’s GDP growth suggest the UK is in a decent position to weather the turbulence sparked by shifts in US policy, but we cannot ignore the knock-on effect on employer confidence. While a rebound in hiring is expected in 2025, recent global trade disruptions have brought fresh uncertainty. Targeted support for sectors such as automotive is welcome, but businesses are still waiting for a clear industrial strategy to unlock long-term investment across the economy. Now is the time for government to move from talk to action, by easing rising employment costs, reassessing the Employment Rights Bill, and cutting the regulatory burden. It is time for competitiveness to enter the chat.”
