USA survey suggests cautious optimism in the job market

Job Market Upturn on the Horizon, but Little Change Is Expected Over Next Six Months

Human resource professionals and job seekers believe the employment outlook for the next year will get better despite expectations of little economic improvement over the next six months. That according to the new Job Opportunities Survey, jointly conducted by the
Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) and CareerJournal.com, The Wall Street Journal's executive career site.

A total of 644 HR professionals and 360 employees or job seekers responded to the survey. Optimism was evident as nearly two-thirds of human resource professionals and employees/job seekers expect the economy to improve in the
next year. In the short term, however, more pessimism was reported with employees more likely to expect economic improvement in the next six months (37 percent) than HR professionals (23 percent).

It seems that HR professionals and job seekers remain hopeful the economy will improve and hiring will increase later in the year, said Debra Cohen, Ph.D., SPHR, Vice President of Knowledge Development at SHRM. While an
economic improvement is not guaranteed, there is a consensus that the next 12 months could bring improvements to the job market and fewer layoffs than 2002.

My fear is that optimism among job hunters and recruiters may be wishful thinking, said Tony Lee, editor-in-chief and general manager of CareerJournal.com. We haven't seen any evidence that hiring will improve later this year, which means it may be 2004 before we see a meaningful
uptick in demand.

Although many economists heed to the lessons of a struggling economy and remain hesitant in the economic growth in the next year, HR professionals and
job seekers appear optimistic that employment opportunities will improve by year-end.

Job Market Outlook
The outlook for the job market was also more optimistic. The majority of both HR professionals (66 percent) and employees (45 percent) felt that the job market would remain about the same over the next six months and improve
(61 percent of HR professionals and 56 percent of employees) in the next twelve months.

HR professionals also expect an increase in hiring in their own organizations. The data showed 32 percent of HR professionals expect increases in hiring over the next six months and 47 percent expect increases in the next twelve months.

Layoffs
Even more encouraging, respondents also expected a decrease in layoffs.
About half (48 percent) of HR professionals reported that their organizations had conducted layoffs in 2002, but the number drops significantly to 27 percent of HR professionals who expect to conduct layoffs in the next six
months.

Unfortunately, the layoff situation was disheartening among the job seekers. One-third of the employees surveyed were laid off in 2002, and of those who remain employed, nearly half expected to see layoffs at their company in the
next twelve months.

Those in the high tech industry were most likely (66 percent) to have experienced layoffs in 2002, followed by those in manufacturing (63 percent) and insurance (56 percent). The industries most likely to expect layoffs in
the next six months include insurance (34 percent), wholesale/retail trade (33 percent), high tech (32 percent), and manufacturing (32 percent). But none of the respondents expect to see more layoffs this year than last year.

Changing Outlook
Not surprisingly, HR professionals are optimistic about the overall economy improving more over the next year than they are for improvement during the next six months. Although only 23 percent of HR professionals expect the
economy to improve in the next six months, 65 percent expect the economy to improve in the next twelve months. This belief is echoed in their expectations for the overall improvement of the job market and the increase
in hiring.


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