DEMAND FOR MANAGERIAL/PROFESSIONAL STAFF EXPECTED TO FALL IN NEXT SIX MONTHS

Demand for managerial and professional staff is falling suggesting that redundancies may be starting to impact on organisations.

The fall is recognised by the lower number of unfilled vacancies predicted for the next three months coupled with the high turnover of staff during the last quarter according to the latest research by Cranfield School of Management.

The Recruitment Confidence Index (RCI) revealed that not only had staff turnover been high across all sectors in the last six months, the trend was expected to continue until at least Christmas.

The RCI is a quarterly survey of UK directors'' and managers'' expectations of changes in recruitment activity and business conditions during the next six months. It is produced by Cranfield School of Management and the Daily Telegraph.

So is personal confidence returning post September 11, with people feeling more secure about their jobs, mortgages and future or is this high turnover coupled with less unfilled vacancies an indication of redundancies?

Nick Hill, Recruitment Sales Manager at the Daily Telegraph said: The latest RCI findings indicate a sharp increase in staff turnover. It''s unclear what this increase
actually means - more employees on the move could be signalling the return of job confidence or, more gloomily, it could be indicating that redundancies are now
feeding through and showing an impact. We can only wait and see if these signs continue into the autumn with the next quarter''s results.

Recruitment activity is expected to increase during the next six months. The Recruitment Confidence Index stands at 119 for all staff and 113 for managerial/professional staff. Respondents to the survey expect recruitment activity will continue to increase albeit at a lower rate than in the Spring.

However, managerial/professional employment in the service sector has, for the first time since the start of the RCI three years ago, fallen below 100. It stands at 115 for all staff in services and 98 for managerial/professional staff indicating that there is a predicted reduction in the demand for managerial/professional staff.

Commenting on these findings Professor Shaun Tyson said: There are a number of factors responsible for these results including changes in the economy: people are not sure if there is a recession coming Also, we must remember that these figures were researched prior to the stock market collapse last month (July).

I would say that there is still uncertainty about jobs and the future for example, house prices and what''s going to happen to the US economy. The dollar is sliding in value although there have been signs of recovery since September 11.

Yet, despite the obvious high turnover in staff, organisations have, during the last six months, experienced the highest levels of recruitment difficulties in both the manufacturing and services sector.

In addition to this, 86 per cent of organisations expect that the percentage of vacancies
that are difficult to fill will either remain the same or increase between now and next year.